San Martin S.J. 0–3 Aldosivi: Result & Stats

San Martin S.J.

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Aldosivi

E. Torres 90', 90'

E. Preciado 39'

5/4/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 16Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

San Martin S.J.43%

×Draw29%

Aldosivi28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Martin S.J.Expected goals in this matchAldosivi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.93

San Martin S.J.

1.24

Aldosivi

0.93

San Martin S.J. creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

0.89

creates per match

0.92

0.94

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

San Martin S.J.

0.89

Aldosivi

0.92

allows per match

San Martin S.J.

0.94

Aldosivi

1.59

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

San Martin S.J.-0.09on par

Aldosivi-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Aldosivi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw

72%

San Martin S.J. or Aldosivi

71%

Draw or Aldosivi

57%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

19%

Aldosivi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

71%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

35%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

13%

Aldosivi 1+ goals

61%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

24%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

61%

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.59 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 0.89 + Aldosivi defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Aldosivi attack 0.92 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more

43%

level

29%

Aldosivi scores more

28%

San Martin S.J. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

E. Torres

Aldosivi · F

8.5

Match Events

39'

E. Preciado

46'

L. Diarte← L. Alvarez

46'

J. Cavallaro← D. Gonzalez

46'

J. Menendez← A. Portillo

52'

Jonathan MenéndezGoal cancelled

55'

Marco Iacobellis

64'

Nicolas Watson

64'

Tobías Leiva

68'

S. Gonzalez← E. Burgos

68'

F. Gonzalez← S. Jaurena

69'

Y. Cabral← E. Preciado

71'

83'

83'

83'

88'

L. Falasco← T. Serrago

89'

89'

90+1'

90+8'

90+7'

90+3'

90'

90'

E. Torres↳ L. Falasco

90'

E. Torres↳ R. Bochi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanAldosivi

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots13

4Corners2

10Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target5

6Off Target6

1Blocked2

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

63%Possession37%

425Total Passes246

331Accurate Passes157

78%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

6Yellow Cards5

2Red Cards1

2Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Martin S.J. 0–3 Aldosivi

Aldosivi beat San Martin S.J. 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 4, 2025.

Goals: E. Preciado (39'), E. Torres (90', 90').

San Martin S.J. controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez in San Juan.

San Martin S.J. vs Aldosivi — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Martin S.J. 0–3 Aldosivi