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Aldosivi vs San Martin S.J. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Aldosivi
Aldosivi
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
E. Preciado 90' (pen)
J. Giani 89'
F. Rami 77'
S. Moya 75'
T. Fernandez 88' (pen)
S. Barrera 63'
11/15/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Aldosivi43%
×Draw30%
San Martin S.J.27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldosivi
1.15
San Martin S.J.
0.85

Aldosivi creates 35% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Aldosivi
1.05
San Martin S.J.
0.77

allows per match

Aldosivi
0.94
San Martin S.J.
1.25

finishing

Aldosivi+0.24scores more
San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

San Martin S.J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw
73%
Aldosivi or San Martin S.J.
70%
Draw or San Martin S.J.
57%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+
18%
San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals
68%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
32%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
11%
San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
57%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
21%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)
61%
San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.94 · 7 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 1.05 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + Aldosivi defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aldosivi scores more
43%
level
30%
San Martin S.J. scores more
27%

Aldosivi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40
J. GianiSan Martin S.J.San Martin S.J.
8.3

Match Events

21'
Facundo De La Vega
21'
Tomas Lecanda
45'
Horacio Tijanovich
46'
F. Rami← F. De La Vega
60'
S. Jaurena← N. Watson
60'
S. Barrera← I. Maestro
63'
S. Barrera↳ T. Fernandez
65'
Giuliano Cerato
65'
Santiago BarreraGoal confirmed
69'
A. Palavecino← T. Serrago
69'
E. Preciado← N. Guzman
74'
Leonel Álvarez
74'
L. Alvarez← S. Gonzalez
75'
S. Moya↳ Y. Cabral
77'
F. Rami↳ A. Palavecino
80'
J. Cavallaro← H. Tijanovich
80'
F. Anselmo← L. Recalde
85'
Matías OrihuelaPenalty confirmed
86'
Santiago Moya
88'
T. FernandezPenalty
89'
J. Giani
90+10'
Ayrton Preciado
90'
Justo Giani
90+7'
Ayrton PreciadoPenalty confirmed
90+3'
T. Kummer← S. Moya
90+3'
G. Mottes← J. Giani
90'
E. PreciadoPenalty

Possession

46%Aldosivi

Shots

14Aldosivi

Pass accuracy

48%Aldosivi

Statistics

AldosiviSan
Overview
46%Possession54%
14Total Shots9
2.27Expected Goals (xG)1.60
2Corners1
17Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots9
8On Target5
4Off Target3
2Blocked1
11Inside Box6
3Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
239Total Passes283
131Accurate Passes170
55%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
-1.17Goals Prevented-1.17
Discipline
17Fouls10
5Yellow Cards3
0Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: Aldosivi 4–2 San Martin S.J.

Aldosivi beat San Martin S.J. 4-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 15, 2025.

Goals: S. Barrera (63'), S. Moya (75'), F. Rami (77'), T. Fernandez (88' pen), J. Giani (89'), E. Preciado (90' pen).

San Martin S.J. controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata.