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Aldosivi vs San Martin S.J. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Aldosivi
Aldosivi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
J. Iritier 90+4'
2/12/2019Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 18Estadio Jose Maria Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Aldosivi43%
×Draw30%
San Martin S.J.27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldosivi
1.15
San Martin S.J.
0.85

Aldosivi creates 35% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Aldosivi
1.05
San Martin S.J.
0.77

allows per match

Aldosivi
0.94
San Martin S.J.
1.25

finishing

Aldosivi+0.24scores more
San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

San Martin S.J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw
73%
Aldosivi or San Martin S.J.
70%
Draw or San Martin S.J.
57%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+
18%
San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals
68%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
32%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
11%
San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
57%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
21%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)
61%
San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.94 · 7 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 1.05 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + Aldosivi defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aldosivi scores more
43%
level
30%
San Martin S.J. scores more
27%

Aldosivi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
L. VillalbaAldosiviAldosivi · D
8.0

Match Events

7'
Francisco Mattia
11'
Arián Pucheta
14'
Emiliano Amor
15'
F. Erpen← G. Castillejos
46'
A. Ruiz← E. Ozuna
66'
Dardo Miloc
69'
Lucas Villalba
70'
G. Villarruel← F. Brandán
74'
J. Iritier← E. Amor
74'
N. Pelaitay← M. Bogado
77'
Federico Gino
90'
Javier Iritier
90+4'
J. Iritier↳ C. Chávez

Possession

75%Aldosivi

Shots

15Aldosivi

Pass accuracy

63%Aldosivi

Statistics

AldosiviSan
Overview
75%Possession25%
15Total Shots6
5Corners1
20Fouls8
Shots
15Total Shots6
2On Target2
10Off Target3
3Blocked1
10Inside Box1
5Outside Box5
Passing
75%Possession25%
595Total Passes204
482Accurate Passes98
81%Pass Accuracy48%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
20Fouls8
5Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
7Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Aldosivi 1–0 San Martin S.J.

Aldosivi beat San Martin S.J. 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 12, 2019.

Goals: J. Iritier (90+4').

Aldosivi controlled possession (75%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Jose Maria Minella in Mar del Plata.