Aldosivi 0–1 San Martin S.J.: Result & Stats

Aldosivi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

San Martin S.J.

J. Blanco 90+4' (pen)

6/14/2023

Copa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Ciudad de Caseros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Aldosivi33%

×Draw29%

San Martin S.J.38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AldosiviExpected goals in this matchSan Martin S.J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.15

Aldosivi

1.04

San Martin S.J.

1.15

San Martin S.J. creates 11% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.25

creates per match

0.67

1.63

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Aldosivi

1.25

San Martin S.J.

0.67

allows per match

Aldosivi

1.63

San Martin S.J.

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aldosivi+0.00on par

San Martin S.J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

San Martin S.J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw

62%

Aldosivi or San Martin S.J.

71%

Draw or San Martin S.J.

67%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+

13%

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals

65%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

28%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

9%

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

68%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

32%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

46%

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 1.25 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

San Martin S.J. attack 0.67 + Aldosivi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aldosivi scores more

33%

level

29%

San Martin S.J. scores more

38%

San Martin S.J. at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

L. Gordillo← L. Espejo

63'

S. González← C. Ludueña

65'

F. Pereyra← M. Panaro

73'

J. Indacoechea← E. Brítez

73'

A. Vega← M. Arturia

81'

F. Grahl← C. Sánchez

90+4'

J. BlancoPenalty

Aldosivi

San

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Quiroz

65'▲F. Pereyra←▼M. Panaro

73'▲J. Indacoechea←▼E. Brítez

Aldosivi substitutes

PereyraIndacoecheaGonzalezRiañoAvitIñíguezTorresVegaOlivaresFalascoIngolottiParedes

Manager: C. Monasterio

63'▲L. Gordillo←▼L. Espejo

63'▲S. González←▼C. Ludueña

73'▲A. Vega←▼M. Arturia

81'▲F. Grahl←▼C. Sánchez

San Martin S.J. substitutes

GordilloGonzálezVegaGrahlHerediaGonzálezBonanseaBontempoFranco