San Lorenzo 1–0 Atletico Tucuman: Result & Stats

San Lorenzo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Tucuman

A. Vombergar 58'

4/12/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 13Estadio Pedro Bidegain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

San Lorenzo46%

×Draw28%

Atletico Tucuman25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Tucuman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.88

San Lorenzo

1.30

Atletico Tucuman

0.88

San Lorenzo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.22

creates per match

1.10

0.66

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

San Lorenzo

1.22

Atletico Tucuman

1.10

allows per match

San Lorenzo

0.66

Atletico Tucuman

1.38

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

San Lorenzo-0.42scores less

Atletico Tucuman-0.52scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Atletico Tucuman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw

75%

San Lorenzo or Atletico Tucuman

72%

Draw or Atletico Tucuman

54%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

21%

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

73%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

37%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

59%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

22%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

65%

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.66 · 15 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.22 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.10 + San Lorenzo defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Lorenzo scores more

46%

level

28%

Atletico Tucuman scores more

25%

San Lorenzo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

G. Hernandez

San Lorenzo · D

7.7

Match Events

26'

Damián Martínez

41'

Gianluca Ferrari

46'

N. Tripichio← E. Cecchini

52'

Miguel Brizuela

58'

A. Vombergar↳ E. Cerutti

62'

N. Lamendola← N. Franco

66'

Jhohan Romaña

68'

M. Bajamich← C. Auzqui

68'

L. Diaz← M. Coronel

75'

A. Cuello← E. Cerutti

80'

L. Rodriguez← D. Martinez

84'

Matías Orihuela

87'

T. Rodriguez Pagano← E. Baez

88'

90+5'

90+2'

90+5'

90'

N. Dominguez← I. Muniain

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanAtletico

Overview

59%Possession41%

9Total Shots14

2Corners3

9Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target3

3Off Target8

2Blocked3

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

479Total Passes325

403Accurate Passes253

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls18

4Yellow Cards5

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Lorenzo 1–0 Atletico Tucuman

San Lorenzo beat Atletico Tucuman 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 12, 2025.

Goals: A. Vombergar (58').

San Lorenzo controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegain in Buenos Aires.

San Lorenzo vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Lorenzo 1–0 Atletico Tucuman