Atletico Tucuman 1–3 San Lorenzo: Result & Stats

Atletico Tucuman

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

San Lorenzo

N. Romero 25'

I. Leguizamón 58', 7'

N. Barrios 19'

4/8/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 10Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Atletico Tucuman43%

×Draw30%

San Lorenzo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchSan Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.85

Atletico Tucuman

1.15

San Lorenzo

0.85

Atletico Tucuman creates 35% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.36

creates per match

0.86

0.84

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.36

San Lorenzo

0.86

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.84

San Lorenzo

0.93

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.08on par

San Lorenzo+0.08on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

73%

Atletico Tucuman or San Lorenzo

70%

Draw or San Lorenzo

57%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

18%

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

68%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

32%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

11%

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

57%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

21%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

61%

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 18 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.36 + San Lorenzo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

San Lorenzo attack 0.86 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

43%

level

30%

San Lorenzo scores more

27%

Atletico Tucuman at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

I. Leguizamón

San Lorenzo · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

I. Leguizamón↳ A. Vombergar

8'

19'

25'

43'

43'

Ignacio Maestro PuchCard upgrade

44'

Guillermo Acosta

44'

Guillermo Acosta

45+5'

Jalil Elias

46'

R. Tesuri← M. Brandán

46'

A. Bareiro← J. Elías

53'

Gastón Hernández

58'

I. Leguizamón↳ N. Barrios

61'

E. Cerutti← N. Barrios

61'

F. Perruzzi← A. Giay

64'

M. Estigarribia← M. Coronel

67'

G. Maroni← A. Vombergar

74'

F. Di Franco← B. Kociubinski

79'

Marcelo Estigarribia

81'

G. Luján← I. Leguizamón

86'

B. Guille← R. Ruiz Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoSan

Overview

42%Possession58%

19Total Shots15

6Corners5

10Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots15

6On Target5

10Off Target6

3Blocked4

11Inside Box10

8Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

348Total Passes490

283Accurate Passes436

81%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

2Red Cards1

0Offsides3