San Lorenzo 1–1 Atletico Tucuman: Result & Stats

San Lorenzo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Tucuman

A. Bareiro 45+1'

R. Carrera 44'

9/10/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 18Estadio Pedro Bidegaín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

San Lorenzo46%

×Draw28%

Atletico Tucuman25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Tucuman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.88

San Lorenzo

1.30

Atletico Tucuman

0.88

San Lorenzo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.22

creates per match

1.10

0.66

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

San Lorenzo

1.22

Atletico Tucuman

1.10

allows per match

San Lorenzo

0.66

Atletico Tucuman

1.38

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

San Lorenzo-0.42scores less

Atletico Tucuman-0.52scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Atletico Tucuman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw

75%

San Lorenzo or Atletico Tucuman

72%

Draw or Atletico Tucuman

54%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

21%

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

73%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

37%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

59%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

22%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

65%

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.66 · 15 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.22 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.10 + San Lorenzo defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Lorenzo scores more

46%

level

28%

Atletico Tucuman scores more

25%

San Lorenzo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

R. Carrera

Atletico Tucuman · M

7.9

Match Events

15'

Andrés VombergarGoal cancelled

44'

R. Carrera↳ A. Lotti

45+1'

A. Bareiro↳ M. Braida

46'

A. Giay← A. Martegani

46'

E. Cerutti← N. Barrios

53'

Manuel Capasso

64'

G. Maroni← A. Vombergar

67'

Renzo Tesuri

68'

C. Menéndez← A. Lotti

68'

F. Di Franco← R. Tesuri

69'

Agustín Giay

76'

I. Leguizamón← M. Braida

79'

Ezequiel Cerutti

81'

M. Coronel← R. Ruiz Rodríguez

90+2'

Matías Orihuela

90'

E. Isnaldo← J. Pereyra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanAtletico

Overview

50%Possession50%

17Total Shots5

4Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots5

5On Target2

7Off Target1

5Blocked2

13Inside Box3

4Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

473Total Passes484

397Accurate Passes372

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: San Lorenzo vs Atletico Tucuman

San Lorenzo and Atletico Tucuman drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 10, 2022.

Goals: R. Carrera (44'), A. Bareiro (45+1').

San Lorenzo controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegaín in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.

San Lorenzo vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: San Lorenzo vs Atletico Tucuman