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Atletico Tucuman vs San Lorenzo — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
M. Ortiz 9'
N. Tripichio 50'
A. Cuello 45' (pen)
10/21/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Atletico Tucuman43%
×Draw30%
San Lorenzo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Tucuman
1.15
San Lorenzo
0.85

Atletico Tucuman creates 35% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman
1.36
San Lorenzo
0.86

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman
0.84
San Lorenzo
0.93

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.08on par
San Lorenzo+0.08on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

San Lorenzo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw
73%
Atletico Tucuman or San Lorenzo
70%
Draw or San Lorenzo
57%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
18%
San Lorenzo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
68%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
32%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
11%
San Lorenzo 1+ goals
57%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
21%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
61%
San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 18 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.36 + San Lorenzo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

San Lorenzo attack 0.86 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more
43%
level
30%
San Lorenzo scores more
27%

Atletico Tucuman at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
N. TripichioSan LorenzoSan Lorenzo · M
8.2

Match Events

3'
N. Lamendola
9'
M. Ortiz
39'
G. Hernandez
44'
C. Auzqui
45+5'
M. Mansilla
45+5'
M. Bajamich
45'
A. CuelloPenalty
46'
D. Herazo← F. Lopez
50'
N. Tripichio↳ F. Gulli
53'
N. Tripichio
57'
D. Herazo
63'
M. Brizuela← I. Galvan
63'
N. Franco← N. Lamendola
63'
R. Ruiz← C. Auzqui
64'
D. Martinez
71'
K. Lopez← K. Ortiz
76'
D. Herrera← E. Cerutti
76'
F. Perruzzi← N. Tripichio
79'
A. Cuello
85'
A. Ladstatter← F. Gulli
86'
L. Cabrera← A. Sanchez
90+4'
Salinardi Branco← A. Cuello

Possession

56%Atletico

Shots

8Atletico

Pass accuracy

52%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoSan
Overview
56%Possession44%
8Total Shots14
1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.88
3Corners6
11Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots14
4On Target9
2Off Target3
2Blocked2
7Inside Box8
1Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
385Total Passes306
283Accurate Passes207
74%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
-0.47Goals Prevented-0.47
Discipline
11Fouls11
5Yellow Cards4
4Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Atletico Tucuman 1–2 San Lorenzo

San Lorenzo beat Atletico Tucuman 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 21, 2025.

Goals: M. Ortiz (9'), A. Cuello (45' pen), N. Tripichio (50').

Atletico Tucuman controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro in Tucuman.