Valerenga 4–0 Tromso: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Valerenga

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tromso

R. Lindkvist 70'

G. Zahid 65'

D. Holm 61' (pen)

D. Brown 41'

4/17/2016

Eliteserien · Round 5Ullevaal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Valerenga37%

×Draw24%

Tromso39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.55

Valerenga

1.50

Tromso

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 24 away

1.48

creates per match

1.39

1.72

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Valerenga

1.48

Tromso

1.39

allows per match

Valerenga

1.72

Tromso

1.53

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Valerenga+0.41scores more

Tromso-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

61%

Valerenga or Tromso

76%

Draw or Tromso

63%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

18%

Tromso wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

78%

Valerenga 2+ goals

44%

Valerenga 3+ goals

19%

Tromso 1+ goals

79%

Tromso 2+ goals

46%

Tromso 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

49%

Tromso (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.53 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.48 + Tromso defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tromso attack 1.39 + Valerenga defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valerenga scores more

37%

level

24%

Tromso scores more

39%

Tromso at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Zahid

Valerenga · M

8.4

Match Events

3'

Morten Gamst Pedersen

25'

Thomas Lehne Olsen

41'

D. Brown↳ N. Castro

56'

Kjetil Waehler

61'

D. HolmPenalty

62'

S. Moussa← T. Olsen

64'

Kent-Are Antonsen

65'

G. Zahid↳ H. Stengel

66'

A. Sigurdarson← J. Johansen

70'

R. Lindkvist↳ G. Zahid

72'

V. Sakor← C. Grindheim

73'

Enar Jääger

80'

A. Nedrebø← N. Castro

81'

M. Ingebrigtsen← Morten Pedersen

82'

E. Ómarsson← D. Holm

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaTromso

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots6

3Corners4

0Fouls0

Shots

12Total Shots6

7On Target2

4Off Target3

1Blocked1

8Inside Box5

4Outside Box1

Passing

59%Possession41%

444Total Passes301

342Accurate Passes190

77%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Valerenga 4–0 Tromso

Valerenga beat Tromso 4-0 in Eliteserien on April 17, 2016.

Goals: D. Brown (41'), D. Holm (61' pen), G. Zahid (65'), R. Lindkvist (70').

Valerenga controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Ullevaal in Oslo.

Valerenga vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Valerenga 4–0 Tromso