Samsunspor 1–1 Alanyaspor: Result & Stats

Samsunspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alanyaspor

A. Musaba 15'

G. Yalcin 90'

12/1/2025

League #203 · Round 14Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Samsunspor43%

×Draw28%

Alanyaspor29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamsunsporExpected goals in this matchAlanyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.02

Samsunspor

1.31

Alanyaspor

1.02

Samsunspor creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.25

creates per match

0.88

1.16

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Samsunspor

1.25

Alanyaspor

0.88

allows per match

Samsunspor

1.16

Alanyaspor

1.36

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Samsunspor+0.11scores more

Alanyaspor+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Alanyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw

71%

Samsunspor or Alanyaspor

72%

Draw or Alanyaspor

57%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+

20%

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals

73%

Samsunspor 2+ goals

38%

Samsunspor 3+ goals

14%

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

64%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

27%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)

60%

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 11 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 1.25 + Alanyaspor defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alanyaspor attack 0.88 + Samsunspor defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Samsunspor scores more

43%

level

28%

Alanyaspor scores more

29%

Samsunspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Yalcin

Alanyaspor · F

7.9

Match Events

15'

38'

44'

46'

47'

50'

RuanPenalty cancelled

61'

S. Aydogdu← E. Aydin

62'

J. Mendes← Z. Yavru

62'

Marius← C. Ndiaye

64'

I. Kaya← F. Aksoy

69'

Logi Tomasson

78'

E. Karaca← I. Hagi

78'

S. Mounie← Hwang Ui-Jo

85'

Y. E. Cift← A. Musaba

86'

89'

90+5'

90+7'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SamsunsporAlanyaspor

Overview

52%Possession48%

7Total Shots10

0.41Expected Goals (xG)0.71

3Corners1

28Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots10

1On Target4

5Off Target2

1Blocked4

5Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

452Total Passes420

387Accurate Passes362

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

-0.33Goals Prevented-0.33

Discipline

28Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor

Samsunspor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in League #203 on December 1, 2025.

Goals: A. Musaba (15'), G. Yalcin (90').

Samsunspor controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Samsun.

Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor