Alanyaspor 2–3 Samsunspor: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Samsunspor

G. Yalcin 90'

M. Elia 90'

Marius 90'

O. Ntcham 39'

E. Tavsan 37'

4/27/2026

League #203 · Round 31Alanya Oba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Alanyaspor34%

×Draw26%

Samsunspor40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchSamsunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.43

Alanyaspor

1.29

Samsunspor

1.43

Samsunspor creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.16

creates per match

1.32

1.54

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Alanyaspor

1.16

Samsunspor

1.32

allows per match

Alanyaspor

1.54

Samsunspor

1.43

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.17scores more

Samsunspor+0.39scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Samsunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

60%

Alanyaspor or Samsunspor

74%

Draw or Samsunspor

66%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

15%

Samsunspor wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

72%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

37%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

14%

Samsunspor 1+ goals

76%

Samsunspor 2+ goals

42%

Samsunspor 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

46%

Samsunspor (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.54 · 6 matches

Samsunspor away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.16 + Samsunspor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Samsunspor attack 1.32 + Alanyaspor defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

34%

level

26%

Samsunspor scores more

40%

Samsunspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Marius

Samsunspor · F

8.3

Match Events

17'

Elayis Tavsan

22'

Steve Mounie

37'

E. Tavsan↳ A. B. Diabbate

39'

O. Ntcham↳ Marius

45'

Ali Diabaté

46'

B. Mogultay← U. Akdag

46'

M. Elia← I. Kaya

48'

Nuno Lima

57'

L. Satka← Y. E. Cift

57'

R. Van Drongelen← A. B. Diabbate

68'

G. Yalcin← S. Mounie

69'

I. Celik← F. Aksoy

72'

A. Makoumbou← O. Ntcham

87'

G. Makouta← Maestro

87'

E. Keskin← Hwang Ui-Jo

89'

Soner Gönül

90+2'

Marius MouandilmadjiGoal confirmed

90'

T. Coulibaly← E. Tavsan

90'

E. Albak← J. Mendes

90'

Marius↳ C. Holse

90'

G. Yalcin

90'

M. Elia↳ Ruan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlanyasporSamsunspor

Overview

48%Possession52%

17Total Shots12

1.10Expected Goals (xG)1.54

12Corners5

11Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots12

5On Target7

9Off Target1

3Blocked4

11Inside Box10

6Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

390Total Passes425

330Accurate Passes351

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.91Goals Prevented-0.91

Discipline

11Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4