Samsunspor 1–1 Alanyaspor: Result & Stats

Samsunspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Alanyaspor

M. Mouandilmadji 60'

O. Aydın 14'

5/18/2024

League #203 · Round 37Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Samsunspor45%

×Draw27%

Alanyaspor28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamsunsporExpected goals in this matchAlanyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.05

Samsunspor

1.40

Alanyaspor

1.05

Samsunspor creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

0.90

1.21

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Samsunspor

1.33

Alanyaspor

0.90

allows per match

Samsunspor

1.21

Alanyaspor

1.46

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Samsunspor+0.07on par

Alanyaspor+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Alanyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw

72%

Samsunspor or Alanyaspor

73%

Draw or Alanyaspor

55%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+

21%

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals

75%

Samsunspor 2+ goals

41%

Samsunspor 3+ goals

17%

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

65%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

28%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)

61%

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 10 matches

Alanyaspor away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.46 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 1.33 + Alanyaspor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Alanyaspor attack 0.90 + Samsunspor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Samsunspor scores more

45%

level

27%

Alanyaspor scores more

28%

Samsunspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Kılınç

Samsunspor · M

7.7

Match Events

14'

O. Aydın↳ Loide Augusto

46'

Y. Özdemir← O. Aydın

56'

M. Bola← S. Gönül

56'

M. Fofana← O. Ntcham

60'

M. Mouandilmadji↳ E. Kılınç

65'

Hwang Ui-Jo← Koka

65'

N. Janvier← Loide Augusto

75'

Zeki Yavru

77'

K. Schindler← Z. Yavru

86'

João Novais← L. Fer

90+1'

O. Çelik← T. Antalyalı

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SamsunsporAlanyaspor

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots7

1.12Expected Goals (xG)0.35

4Corners1

9Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots7

2On Target4

3Off Target3

4Blocked0

2Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

34%Possession66%

312Total Passes640

243Accurate Passes575

78%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1