Alanyaspor 1–0 Samsunspor: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Samsunspor

Y. Özdemir 9'

4/21/2025

League #203 · Round 32GAIN Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Alanyaspor32%

×Draw27%

Samsunspor41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchSamsunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.35

Alanyaspor

1.16

Samsunspor

1.35

Samsunspor creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

1.37

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Alanyaspor

1.00

Samsunspor

1.33

allows per match

Alanyaspor

1.37

Samsunspor

1.31

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.25scores more

Samsunspor+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Samsunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

59%

Alanyaspor or Samsunspor

73%

Draw or Samsunspor

68%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

13%

Samsunspor wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

69%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

32%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

11%

Samsunspor 1+ goals

74%

Samsunspor 2+ goals

39%

Samsunspor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

44%

Samsunspor (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.37 · 8 matches

Samsunspor away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.31 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 1.00 + Samsunspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Samsunspor attack 1.33 + Alanyaspor defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

32%

level

27%

Samsunspor scores more

41%

Samsunspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Samsunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

Y. Özdemir

Alanyaspor · M

7.6

Match Events

-5'

Yunus Emre Çift

9'

Y. Özdemir↳ F. Hadergjonaj

42'

Ui-Jo Hwang

45+1'

Tonny Vilhena

52'

Landry DimataPenalty confirmed

54'

Nuno Lima

55'

Carlo HolseMissed penalty

58'

Fidan Aliti

64'

Richard Cândido

65'

G. Makouta← Hwang Ui-Jo

67'

Zeki Yavru

75'

E. Karaca← T. Vilhena

75'

K. Schindler← Z. Yavru

75'

A. Muja← E. Kılınç

75'

S. Aydoğdu← F. Tait

77'

Carlo Holse

82'

M. Özbaskıcı← C. Holse

84'

E. Keskin← F. Hadergjonaj

85'

J. Balkovec← N. Janvier

87'

Rick Van Drongelen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlanyasporSamsunspor

Overview

35%Possession65%

6Total Shots14

0.40Expected Goals (xG)1.40

5Corners1

11Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots14

2On Target3

2Off Target8

2Blocked3

5Inside Box9

1Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

277Total Passes526

198Accurate Passes446

71%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.27Goals Prevented-0.27

Discipline

11Fouls9

5Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor

Alanyaspor beat Samsunspor 1-0 in League #203 on April 21, 2025.

Goals: Y. Özdemir (9').

Samsunspor controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at GAIN Park Stadium in Antalya.

Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor