Salernitana 0–2 Fiorentina: Result & Stats

Salernitana

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fiorentina

4/21/2024

Serie A · Round 33Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Salernitana24%

×Draw24%

Fiorentina52%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.71

Salernitana

1.10

Fiorentina

1.71

Fiorentina creates 55% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 33 away

0.73

creates per match

1.12

2.30

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Salernitana

0.73

Fiorentina

1.12

allows per match

Salernitana

2.30

Fiorentina

1.47

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.07on par

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

48%

Salernitana or Fiorentina

76%

Draw or Fiorentina

76%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

9%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

67%

Salernitana 2+ goals

30%

Salernitana 3+ goals

10%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

82%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

51%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

32%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.30 · 5 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 0.73 + Fiorentina defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.10

Fiorentina attack 1.12 + Salernitana defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Salernitana scores more

24%

level

24%

Fiorentina scores more

52%

Fiorentina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff