Salernitana 3–3 Fiorentina: Result & Stats

Salernitana

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Fiorentina

B. Dia 81' (pen), 59', 10'

C. Biraghi 84'

J. Ikoné 71'

N. González 36'

5/3/2023

Serie A · Round 33Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Salernitana33%

×Draw25%

Fiorentina42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.51

Salernitana

1.30

Fiorentina

1.51

Fiorentina creates 16% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 137 away

1.18

creates per match

1.25

1.77

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Salernitana

1.18

Fiorentina

1.25

allows per match

Salernitana

1.77

Fiorentina

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

58%

Salernitana or Fiorentina

75%

Draw or Fiorentina

67%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

14%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

73%

Salernitana 2+ goals

37%

Salernitana 3+ goals

14%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

78%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

44%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

44%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.18 + Fiorentina defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fiorentina attack 1.25 + Salernitana defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Salernitana scores more

33%

level

25%

Fiorentina scores more

42%

Fiorentina at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

B. Dia

Salernitana · F

8.6

Match Events

10'

B. Dia↳ D. Bradarić

14'

F. Daniliuc← N. Gyömbér

36'

40'

43'

45'

49'

51'

55'

Lucas Martínez Quarta

59'

B. Dia↳ E. Botheim

60'

G. Bonaventura← G. Castrovilli

61'

G. Kastanos← G. Maggiore

61'

T. Vilhena← E. Bohinen

66'

L. Jović← Arthur Cabral

66'

L. Ranieri← Igor

66'

A. Duncan← R. Mandragora

71'

J. Ikoné↳ G. Bonaventura

81'

B. DiaPenalty

82'

84'

84'

90+4'

90+2'

J. Sambia← P. Mazzocchi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalernitanaFiorentina

Overview

47%Possession53%

4Total Shots12

1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.85

2Corners3

18Fouls15

Shots

4Total Shots12

3On Target3

1Off Target5

0Blocked4

2Inside Box10

2Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

337Total Passes374

252Accurate Passes275

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Discipline

18Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides0