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Fiorentina vs Salernitana — Serie A 2026

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Salernitana
Salernitana
12/3/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 14Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Fiorentina55%
×Draw24%
Salernitana21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.75
Salernitana
0.98

Fiorentina creates 79% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 41 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
1.45
Salernitana
0.85

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.10
Salernitana
2.05

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par
Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Salernitana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
79%
Fiorentina or Salernitana
76%
Draw or Salernitana
45%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
31%
Salernitana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
83%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
52%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
25%
Salernitana 1+ goals
62%
Salernitana 2+ goals
26%
Salernitana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
72%
Salernitana (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.05 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.45 + Salernitana defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.75

Salernitana attack 0.85 + Fiorentina defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fiorentina scores more
55%
level
24%
Salernitana scores more
21%

Fiorentina at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs Salernitana

Fiorentina beat Salernitana 3-0 in Serie A on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.