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Salernitana vs Fiorentina — Serie A 2026

Salernitana
Salernitana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
F. Bonazzoli 79'
M. Đurić 9'
R. Saponara 64'
4/24/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 34Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Salernitana33%
×Draw25%
Fiorentina42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salernitana
1.30
Fiorentina
1.51

Fiorentina creates 16% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 137 away

creates per match

Salernitana
1.18
Fiorentina
1.25

allows per match

Salernitana
1.77
Fiorentina
1.42

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par
Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw
58%
Salernitana or Fiorentina
75%
Draw or Fiorentina
67%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+
14%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals
73%
Salernitana 2+ goals
37%
Salernitana 3+ goals
14%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
78%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
44%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)
44%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.18 + Fiorentina defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fiorentina attack 1.25 + Salernitana defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Salernitana scores more
33%
level
25%
Fiorentina scores more
42%

Fiorentina at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. ĐurićSalernitanaSalernitana · F
7.9

Match Events

9'
M. Đurić↳ E. Bohinen
22'
Norbert Gyömbér
46'
F. Ribéry← S. Verdi
46'
R. Saponara← J. Ikoné
59'
Odriozola← L. Venuti
59'
K. Piątek← Arthur Cabral
64'
R. Saponara
67'
A. Terzić← C. Biraghi
67'
José Callejón← Y. Maleh
75'
G. Kastanos← L. Coulibaly
75'
F. Bonazzoli← M. Đurić
75'
M. Ruggeri← N. Zortea
79'
F. Bonazzoli
82'
Nikola Milenković

Possession

28%Salernitana

Shots

10Salernitana

Pass accuracy

43%Salernitana

Statistics

SalernitanaFiorentina
Overview
28%Possession72%
10Total Shots8
6Corners4
15Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots8
4On Target3
3Off Target3
3Blocked2
6Inside Box7
4Outside Box1
Passing
28%Possession72%
216Total Passes575
139Accurate Passes493
64%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Salernitana vs Fiorentina

Salernitana beat Fiorentina 2-1 in Serie A on April 24, 2022.

Goals: M. Đurić (9'), R. Saponara (64'), F. Bonazzoli (79').

Fiorentina controlled possession (72%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Arechi in Salerno.