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Saint Etienne vs Marseille — Ligue 1 2026

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Marseille
Marseille
L. Gourna-Douath 86'
D. Bouanga 9'
A. Harit 73'
B. Dieng 68' (pen)
T. Kolodziejczak 60' (OG)
D. Payet 45+2' (pen)
4/3/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 30Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Saint Etienne36%
×Draw26%
Marseille38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
1.36
Marseille
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 123 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
1.44
Marseille
1.52

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.28
Marseille
1.28

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
Marseille+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Marseille →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
62%
Saint Etienne or Marseille
74%
Draw or Marseille
64%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
16%
Marseille wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
74%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
39%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
16%
Marseille 1+ goals
75%
Marseille 2+ goals
41%
Marseille 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
49%
Marseille (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

Marseille away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.28 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.44 + Marseille defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

Marseille attack 1.52 + Saint Etienne defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
36%
level
26%
Marseille scores more
38%

Marseille at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Marseille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
B. DiengMarseilleMarseille · F
7.9

Match Events

9'
D. Bouanga
45+1'
Eliaquim Mangala
45'
Amine HaritPenalty awarded
45+2'
D. PayetPenalty
46'
C. Ünder← S. Kolašinac
60'
T. KolodziejczakOwn goal
64'
E. Crivelli← R. Boudebouz
65'
A. Aouchiche← Z. Youssouf
68'
B. DiengPenalty
69'
C. Bakambu← B. Dieng
73'
A. Harit↳ M. Guendouzi
77'
Sada Thioub
80'
B. Sako← E. Mangala
80'
H. Moukoudi← A. Nordin
80'
P. Gueye← D. Payet
86'
Pol Lirola← M. Guendouzi
86'
L. Gourna-Douath
87'
Gabriel Silva← S. Thioub
87'
O. Targhalline← A. Harit
88'
Oussama Targhalline

Possession

30%Saint

Shots

5Saint

Pass accuracy

47%Saint

Statistics

SaintMarseille
Overview
30%Possession70%
5Total Shots15
2Corners9
14Fouls12
Shots
5Total Shots15
2On Target9
2Off Target3
1Blocked3
3Inside Box11
2Outside Box4
Passing
30%Possession70%
253Total Passes619
197Accurate Passes550
78%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
6Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Marseille

Marseille beat Saint Etienne 4-2 in Ligue 1 on April 3, 2022.

Goals: D. Bouanga (9'), D. Payet (45+2' pen), T. Kolodziejczak (60' o.g.), B. Dieng (68' pen), A. Harit (73'), L. Gourna-Douath (86').

Marseille controlled possession (70%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.