Marseille 3–1 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats

Marseille

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Saint Etienne

C. Ünder 68'

Gerson 51'

M. Guendouzi 23'

T. Kolodziejczak 32'

8/28/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 4Orange Vélodrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Marseille50%

×Draw24%

Saint Etienne26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarseilleExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.13

Marseille

1.68

Saint Etienne

1.13

Marseille creates 49% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 87 away

1.83

creates per match

1.10

1.16

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Marseille

1.83

Saint Etienne

1.10

allows per match

Marseille

1.16

Saint Etienne

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marseille+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marseille ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Marseille or draw

74%

Marseille or Saint Etienne

76%

Draw or Saint Etienne

50%

Winning margin

Marseille wins by 2+

27%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Marseille 1+ goals

81%

Marseille 2+ goals

50%

Marseille 3+ goals

24%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

68%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

31%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Marseille (draw refunded)

66%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marseille at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.16 · 116 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marseille attack 1.83 + Saint Etienne defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.68

Saint Etienne attack 1.10 + Marseille defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Marseille scores more

50%

level

24%

Saint Etienne scores more

26%

Marseille at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Marseille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Ünder

Marseille · F

8.0

Match Events

23'

M. Guendouzi↳ K. De La Fuente

32'

T. Kolodziejczak↳ A. Aouchiche

42'

Wahbi Khazri

46'

A. Nordin← A. Aouchiche

49'

Yvann Maçon

51'

Gerson↳ V. Rongier

56'

Luis Henrique← K. De La Fuente

58'

R. Hamouma← L. Gourna-Douath

61'

68'

70'

71'

74'

85'

85'

Z. Youssouf← M. Camara

87'

Pape Gueye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarseilleSaint

Overview

64%Possession36%

19Total Shots11

5Corners4

11Fouls18

Shots

19Total Shots11

5On Target7

8Off Target4

6Blocked0

14Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

631Total Passes333

570Accurate Passes284

90%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Ligue 1: Marseille 3–1 Saint Etienne

Marseille beat Saint Etienne 3-1 in Ligue 1 on August 28, 2021.

Goals: M. Guendouzi (23'), T. Kolodziejczak (32'), Gerson (51'), C. Ünder (68').

Marseille controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Orange Vélodrome in Marseille.

Marseille vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 1: Marseille 3–1 Saint Etienne