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Saint Etienne vs Marseille — Ligue 1 2026

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Marseille
Marseille
A. Nordin 43'
5/9/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 36Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Saint Etienne36%
×Draw26%
Marseille38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
1.36
Marseille
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 123 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
1.44
Marseille
1.52

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.28
Marseille
1.28

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
Marseille+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Marseille →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
62%
Saint Etienne or Marseille
74%
Draw or Marseille
64%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
16%
Marseille wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
74%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
39%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
16%
Marseille 1+ goals
75%
Marseille 2+ goals
41%
Marseille 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
49%
Marseille (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

Marseille away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.28 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.44 + Marseille defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

Marseille attack 1.52 + Saint Etienne defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
36%
level
26%
Marseille scores more
38%

Marseille at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Marseille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40
E. GreenSaint EtienneSaint Etienne · G
8.0

Match Events

27'
T. Kolodziejczak← H. Moukoudi
43'
A. Nordin↳ W. Khazri
61'
V. Rongier← B. Kamara
61'
H. Sakai← D. Ćaleta-Car
63'
Florian Thauvin
67'
Leonardo Balerdi
69'
R. Hamouma← A. Nordin
69'
A. Aouchiche← C. Abi
69'
L. Gourna-Douath← W. Khazri
76'
Timothée Kolodziejczak
83'
D. Benedetto← F. Thauvin
85'
Álvaro González
86'
Z. Youssouf← D. Bouanga

Possession

44%Saint

Shots

18Saint

Pass accuracy

49%Saint

Statistics

SaintMarseille
Overview
44%Possession56%
18Total Shots15
10Corners4
22Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots15
5On Target4
8Off Target8
5Blocked3
10Inside Box9
8Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
313Total Passes386
238Accurate Passes301
76%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
22Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Marseille

Saint Etienne beat Marseille 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 9, 2021.

Goals: A. Nordin (43').

Marseille controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.