Marseille 0–2 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats

Marseille

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Saint Etienne

D. Bouanga 75'

R. Hamouma 6'

9/17/2020

Ligue 1 · Round 1Orange Vélodrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Marseille50%

×Draw24%

Saint Etienne26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarseilleExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.13

Marseille

1.68

Saint Etienne

1.13

Marseille creates 49% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 87 away

1.83

creates per match

1.10

1.16

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Marseille

1.83

Saint Etienne

1.10

allows per match

Marseille

1.16

Saint Etienne

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marseille+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marseille ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Marseille or draw

74%

Marseille or Saint Etienne

76%

Draw or Saint Etienne

50%

Winning margin

Marseille wins by 2+

27%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Marseille 1+ goals

81%

Marseille 2+ goals

50%

Marseille 3+ goals

24%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

68%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

31%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Marseille (draw refunded)

66%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marseille at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.16 · 116 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marseille attack 1.83 + Saint Etienne defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.68

Saint Etienne attack 1.10 + Marseille defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Marseille scores more

50%

level

24%

Saint Etienne scores more

26%

Marseille at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Marseille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Moulin

Saint Etienne · G

7.7

Match Events

6'

R. Hamouma↳ Y. Maçon

9'

A. Moueffek← M. Debuchy

21'

Yvann Maçon

30'

Hiroki Sakai

45'

Morgan Sanson

46'

M. Aké← M. Lopez

46'

B. Sarr← L. Balerdi

46'

A. Nordin← A. Aouchiche

58'

Z. Youssouf← R. Hamouma

71'

V. Germain← M. Sanson

71'

L. Gourna-Douath← Y. Neyou Noupa

71'

N. Sissoko← C. Abi

75'

D. Bouanga↳ A. Nordin

78'

K. Strootman← V. Rongier

79'

C. Rocchia← H. Sakai

85'

Lucas Gourna-Douath

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarseilleSaint

Overview

59%Possession41%

13Total Shots12

7Corners6

13Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots12

2On Target5

8Off Target2

3Blocked5

10Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

519Total Passes344

427Accurate Passes267

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides4