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Rubin vs CSKA Moscow — Premier League 2018

Rubin
Rubin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
4/25/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Ak Bars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Rubin33%
×Draw28%
CSKA Moscow39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.08
CSKA Moscow
1.21

CSKA Moscow creates 12% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 120 away

creates per match

Rubin
1.09
CSKA Moscow
1.34

allows per match

Rubin
1.08
CSKA Moscow
1.06

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

CSKA Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
61%
Rubin or CSKA Moscow
72%
Draw or CSKA Moscow
67%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
13%
CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
66%
Rubin 2+ goals
29%
Rubin 3+ goals
10%
CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
70%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
34%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
46%
CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.08 · 103 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.09 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + Rubin defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rubin scores more
33%
level
28%
CSKA Moscow scores more
39%

CSKA Moscow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
E. StaverRubinRubin · G
8.3

Match Events

5'
Igor Vujacic
27'
Nikita Lobov
46'
D. Maldonado← N. Lobov
46'
L. Gondou← Matheus Alves
46'
M. Kislyak← Henrique Carmo
51'
Kirill Danilov
62'
Luciano Gondou
64'
D. Shabanhaxhaj← J. Siwe
64'
R. Bezrukov← N. Gripshi
66'
Matheus Reis← M. Popovic
72'
D. Kozlov← Moises
80'
D. Kabutov← A. Arroyo
86'
Ignacio Saavedra
86'
K. Nizhegorodov← I. Rozhkov

Possession

47%Rubin

Shots

17Rubin

Pass accuracy

48%Rubin

Statistics

RubinCSKA
Overview
47%Possession53%
17Total Shots19
5Corners4
15Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots19
4On Target8
5Off Target7
8Blocked4
11Inside Box7
6Outside Box12
Passing
47%Possession53%
410Total Passes477
319Accurate Passes402
78%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
8Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Rubin vs CSKA Moscow

Rubin and CSKA Moscow drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 25, 2026.

CSKA Moscow controlled possession (53%) and registered 19 shots to 17.

The match was played at Ak Bars Arena in Kazan.