CSKA Moscow vs Rubin — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 102+ matches
CSKA Moscow53%
Rubin23%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
CSKA Moscow creates 67% more chances
Season form · 117 home / 102 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CSKA Moscow ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.92 · 117 matches
Rubin away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.38 · 102 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CSKA Moscow attack 1.86 + Rubin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.62
Rubin attack 1.02 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
CSKA Moscow at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
CSKA Moscow substitutes
Zenit
FC Krasnodar
Lokomotiv
Spartak MoscowCSKA Moscow
Baltika
DynamoRubin
Akhmat
FC Rostov
Krylia Sovetov
Dinamo Makhachkala
Akron
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Sochi
Rotor Volgograd
UralIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
CSKA Moscow host Rubin on Saturday, 9 August 2025 at 12:45. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: CSKA Moscow 5–1 Rubin
CSKA Moscow beat Rubin 5-1 in Premier League on August 9, 2025.
Goals: K. Glebov (7', 44'), D. Krugovoy (29'), I. Diveev (33'), M. Daku (40'), T. Musaev (56').
CSKA Moscow controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 16.
The match was played at VEB Arena in Moscow.