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CSKA Moscow vs Rubin — Cup 2019

CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscowadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Rubin
Rubin
T. Musaev 38'
A. Fayzullaev 29'
Khellven 20'
11/26/2024CupCup · Premier League Path - Quarter-finalsVEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CSKA Moscow64%
×Draw23%
Rubin13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moscow
1.76
Rubin
0.65

CSKA Moscow creates 171% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

creates per match

CSKA Moscow
1.65
Rubin
0.60

allows per match

CSKA Moscow
0.70
Rubin
1.87

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw
87%
CSKA Moscow or Rubin
77%
Draw or Rubin
36%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
37%
Rubin wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
83%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
52%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
26%
Rubin 1+ goals
48%
Rubin 2+ goals
14%
Rubin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
83%
Rubin (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

Rubin away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.65 + Rubin defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.76

Rubin attack 0.60 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more
64%
level
23%
Rubin scores more
13%

CSKA Moscow at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Khellven↳ T. Musaev
29'
A. Fayzullaev↳ I. Oblyakov
38'
T. Musaev↳ Willyan Rocha
46'
U. Iwu← B. Jočić
46'
O. Ivanov← V. Hodža
46'
M. Daku← J. Fameyeh
55'
I. Rozhkov← A. Zotov
58'
Dardan Shabanhaxhaj
69'
Willyan Rocha
72'
S. Koïta← M. Pjanić
72'
K. Bistrović← A. Fayzullaev
79'
S. Guarirapa← T. Musaev
79'
K. Glebov← I. Oblyakov
82'
N. Čumić← U. Rahmonaliyev
84'
D. Krugovoy← M. Gajić
88'
Aleksey Gritsaenko
90'
Khellven

Statistics

CSKARubin
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Cup: CSKA Moscow 3–0 Rubin

CSKA Moscow beat Rubin 3-0 in Cup on November 26, 2024.

Goals: Khellven (20'), A. Fayzullaev (29'), T. Musaev (38').

The match was played at VEB Arena in Moskva.