CSKA Moscow 2–2 Rubin: Result & Stats

CSKA Moscow

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rubin

M. Lukin 90+6', 63'

E. Teslenko 52'

M. Daku 43'

11/30/2024

Premier League · Round 17VEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

CSKA Moscow53%

×Draw25%

Rubin23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA MoscowExpected goals in this matchRubin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.97

CSKA Moscow

1.62

Rubin

0.97

CSKA Moscow creates 67% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 102 away

1.86

creates per match

1.02

0.92

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

CSKA Moscow

1.86

Rubin

1.02

allows per match

CSKA Moscow

0.92

Rubin

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Rubin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw

77%

CSKA Moscow or Rubin

75%

Draw or Rubin

47%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

28%

Rubin wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

80%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

48%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

22%

Rubin 1+ goals

62%

Rubin 2+ goals

25%

Rubin 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

70%

Rubin (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.92 · 117 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.38 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.86 + Rubin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.62

Rubin attack 1.02 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more

53%

level

25%

Rubin scores more

23%

CSKA Moscow at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90

M. Lukin

CSKA Moscow · D

8.9

Match Events

21'

Bogdan Jočić

35'

Ugochukwu Iwu

41'

Dmitriy Kabutov

43'

M. Daku↳ D. Shabanhaxhaj

52'

E. Teslenko↳ D. Kabutov

62'

R. Zhemaletdinov← M. Kislyak

62'

S. Guarirapa← T. Musaev

63'

M. Lukin

65'

Dmitriy Kabutov

65'

Dmitriy Kabutov

68'

R. Bezrukov← D. Shabanhaxhaj

68'

V. Hodža← B. Jočić

70'

K. Bistrović← D. Krugovoy

73'

85'

86'

86'

88'

90+8'

K. Nizhegorodov← I. Rozhkov

90+6'

M. Lukin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSKARubin

Overview

70%Possession30%

17Total Shots10

9Corners4

8Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots10

7On Target2

7Off Target6

3Blocked2

13Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

596Total Passes265

508Accurate Passes180

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls16

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1