Rotor Volgograd vs PFC Sochi — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 16+ matches
Rotor Volgograd28%
PFC Sochi44%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
PFC Sochi creates 35% more chances
Season form · 16 home / 89 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rotor Volgograd ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 0.31, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches
PFC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rotor Volgograd attack 0.31 + PFC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 0.98
PFC Sochi attack 1.08 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
PFC Sochi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Rotor Volgograd substitutes
PFC Sochi substitutes
Zenit
FC Krasnodar
Dynamo
Lokomotiv
Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow
FC Rostov
Rubin
Krylia Sovetov
Akhmat
Fakel
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
Ural
BaltikaFC SochiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Rotor Volgograd host PFC Sochi on Saturday, 22 August 2020 at 17:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: Rotor Volgograd 1–2 PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi beat Rotor Volgograd 2-1 in Premier League on August 22, 2020.
Goals: N. Burmistrov (21', 59'), K. Mullin (52').
PFC Sochi controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 13.
The match was played at Volgograd Arena in Volgograd.