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FC Sochi vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
9/14/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Sochi47%
×Draw27%
Rotor Volgograd26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.40
Rotor Volgograd
0.96

FC Sochi creates 46% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 87 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
1.84
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

FC Sochi
0.86
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
74%
FC Sochi or Rotor Volgograd
73%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
53%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
23%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
75%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
41%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
17%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
62%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
25%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
65%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.84 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + FC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Sochi scores more
47%
level
27%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
26%

FC Sochi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
I. Kukharchuk← V. Tyurin
60'
R. Magal← I. Safronov
60'
R. Bart← K. Nikitin
65'
Aleksey Shumskikh
70'
I. Sokolov← M. Maltsev
70'
E. Bolotov← D. Talikin
74'
A. Makarov← K. Kravtsov
80'
K. Dudkin← N. Plotnikov
80'
Y. Zavezen← T. Kasimov
83'
A. Shushenachev← V. Pisarskiy
83'
A. Makarchuk← K. Suslov

Statistics

FCRotor
Discipline
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: FC Sochi vs Rotor Volgograd

FC Sochi and Rotor Volgograd drew 0-0 in First League on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.