FC Sochi 1–1 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

FC Sochi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rotor Volgograd

A. Shushenachev 62'

M. Turishchev 39'

2/14/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Sochi48%

×Draw23%

Rotor Volgograd29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SochiExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.38

FC Sochi

1.82

Rotor Volgograd

1.38

FC Sochi creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

2.15

creates per match

1.00

1.75

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FC Sochi

2.15

Rotor Volgograd

1.00

allows per match

FC Sochi

1.75

Rotor Volgograd

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw

71%

FC Sochi or Rotor Volgograd

77%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

52%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+

26%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals

84%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

54%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

27%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

75%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

40%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

62%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 2.15 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.00 + FC Sochi defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Sochi scores more

48%

level

23%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

29%

FC Sochi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

M. Turishchev

62'

A. Shushenachev

FC

Rotor

Manager: Igor Osinkin

Manager: D. Boyarintsev