Rotor Volgograd 1–1 FC Sochi: Result & Stats

Rotor Volgograd

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Sochi

T. Kasimov 78'

K. Nikitin 35'

11/8/2024

First League · Round 18Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rotor Volgograd34%

×Draw28%

FC Sochi38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotor VolgogradExpected goals in this matchFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.22

Rotor Volgograd

1.15

FC Sochi

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 38 away

1.22

creates per match

1.45

0.99

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd

1.22

FC Sochi

1.45

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd

0.99

FC Sochi

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

FC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw

62%

Rotor Volgograd or FC Sochi

72%

Draw or FC Sochi

66%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

14%

FC Sochi wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

68%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

32%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

11%

FC Sochi 1+ goals

70%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

34%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

48%

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.99 · 86 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.22 + FC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

FC Sochi attack 1.45 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more

34%

level

28%

FC Sochi scores more

38%

FC Sochi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

21'

33'

35'

58'

D. Lavrishchev← M. Maltsev

58'

T. Kasimov← I. Sokolov

58'

D. Talikin← E. Bolotov

69'

Y. Zavezen← V. Morozov

69'

G. Shilnikov← N. Plotnikov

71'

A. Shushenachev← V. Pisarskiy

71'

R. Magal← P. Maslov

71'

V. Lazarev← K. Nikitin

78'

78'

85'

90'

Statistics

RotorFC

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0