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Rotor Volgograd vs FC Sochi — First League 2024

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
Preview
15:00
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
10/17/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Volgograd Arena
Big match
46%
Rotor Volgograd
model favours
46%28%26%

Rotor Volgograd win just 24% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rotor Volgograd46%
×Draw28%
FC Sochi26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.33
FC Sochi
0.92

Rotor Volgograd creates 45% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.33
FC Sochi
1.16

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.69
FC Sochi
1.32

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
74%
Rotor Volgograd or FC Sochi
72%
Draw or FC Sochi
54%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
22%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
74%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
38%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
15%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
60%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
23%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
64%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.69 · 39 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.33 + FC Sochi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

FC Sochi attack 1.16 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
46%
level
28%
FC Sochi scores more
26%

Rotor Volgograd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Volgograd
LLW
Sochi
DLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rotor Volgograd vs FC Sochi — Match Preview

Rotor Volgograd face FC Sochi on October 17, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rotor Volgograd host FC Sochi at Volgograd Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.