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Rotherham vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
D. Hall 59'
A. Martha 31'
R. James 10'
11/8/2025League OneLeague One · Round 15Aesseal New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Rotherham33%
×Draw25%
Lincoln42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.29
Lincoln
1.50

Lincoln creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.45
Lincoln
1.38

allows per match

Rotherham
1.63
Lincoln
1.13

finishing

Rotherham-0.27scores less
Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
58%
Rotherham or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
67%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
14%
Lincoln wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
72%
Rotherham 2+ goals
37%
Rotherham 3+ goals
14%
Lincoln 1+ goals
78%
Lincoln 2+ goals
44%
Lincoln 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
44%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.63 · 11 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.45 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Rotherham defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rotherham scores more
33%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
42%

Lincoln at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
R. JamesRotherhamRotherham · D
8.3

Match Events

10'
R. James↳ D. Gore
31'
A. Martha↳ J. Powell
50'
Sam Nombe
59'
D. Hall
61'
Freddie Draper
63'
J. Collins← F. Draper
63'
I. Varfolomeev← C. McGrandles
64'
O. Thorn← J. Obikwu
79'
F. Okoronkwo← E. Ring
79'
D. Lembikisa← A. Reach
80'
M. Sherif← J. Hugill
81'
D. Yearwood← S. McWilliams
89'
J. Benson← S. Nombe
90+3'
M. Kaleta← A. Martha

Possession

40%Rotherham

Shots

13Rotherham

Pass accuracy

49%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamLincoln
Overview
40%Possession60%
13Total Shots10
0.62Expected Goals (xG)1.18
4Corners6
9Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots10
5On Target4
5Off Target5
3Blocked1
7Inside Box10
6Outside Box0
Passing
40%Possession60%
275Total Passes404
180Accurate Passes270
65%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Lincoln

Rotherham beat Lincoln 3-0 in League One on November 8, 2025.

Goals: R. James (10'), A. Martha (31'), D. Hall (59').

Lincoln controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Aesseal New York Stadium in Rotherham.