Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rotherham vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
C. Ogbene 13'
B. Wiles 11'
T. Hopper 81'
3/15/2022League OneLeague One · Round 25AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Rotherham33%
×Draw25%
Lincoln42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.29
Lincoln
1.50

Lincoln creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.45
Lincoln
1.38

allows per match

Rotherham
1.63
Lincoln
1.13

finishing

Rotherham-0.27scores less
Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
58%
Rotherham or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
67%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
14%
Lincoln wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
72%
Rotherham 2+ goals
37%
Rotherham 3+ goals
14%
Lincoln 1+ goals
78%
Lincoln 2+ goals
44%
Lincoln 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
44%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.63 · 11 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.45 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Rotherham defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rotherham scores more
33%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
42%

Lincoln at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
C. OgbeneRotherhamRotherham · M
7.9

Match Events

11'
B. Wiles↳ O. Rathbone
13'
C. Ogbene↳ B. Wiles
45+3'
Oliver Rathbone
49'
Tom Hopper
67'
W. Harding← J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode
67'
A. MacDonald← D. Barlaser
69'
L. Cullen← A. Scully
70'
Richard Wood
73'
L. Sørensen← E. Bishop
77'
H. Odoffin← O. Rathbone
81'
T. Hopper↳ C. Bramall
82'
Joe Walsh

Possession

38%Rotherham

Shots

13Rotherham

Pass accuracy

46%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamLincoln
Overview
38%Possession62%
13Total Shots10
6Corners3
15Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots10
7On Target3
3Off Target4
3Blocked3
7Inside Box5
6Outside Box5
Passing
38%Possession62%
250Total Passes423
154Accurate Passes303
62%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

League One: Rotherham 2–1 Lincoln

Rotherham beat Lincoln 2-1 in League One on March 15, 2022.

Goals: B. Wiles (11'), C. Ogbene (13'), T. Hopper (81').

Lincoln controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.