Lincoln 0–1 Rotherham: Result & Stats | League One

Lincoln

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rotherham

J. Powell 85'

1/1/2025

League One · Round 24LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Lincoln44%

×Draw25%

Rotherham32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.29

Lincoln

1.56

Rotherham

1.29

Lincoln creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.95

creates per match

1.12

1.47

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Lincoln

1.95

Rotherham

1.12

allows per match

Lincoln

1.47

Rotherham

1.18

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Lincoln+0.38scores more

Rotherham-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

68%

Lincoln or Rotherham

75%

Draw or Rotherham

56%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

22%

Rotherham wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

79%

Lincoln 2+ goals

46%

Lincoln 3+ goals

21%

Rotherham 1+ goals

72%

Rotherham 2+ goals

37%

Rotherham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

58%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.47 · 9 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.18 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.95 + Rotherham defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rotherham attack 1.12 + Lincoln defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lincoln scores more

44%

level

25%

Rotherham scores more

32%

Lincoln at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

G. Wickens

Lincoln · G

8.2

Match Events

65'

F. Draper← B. Cadamarteri

75'

Joe Rafferty

76'

T. Bayliss← B. House

76'

D. Duffy← J. Moylan

80'

C. Bramall← A. MacDonald

85'

J. Powell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnRotherham

Overview

53%Possession47%

7Total Shots15

1Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots15

2On Target9

3Off Target3

2Blocked3

1Inside Box10

6Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

354Total Passes309

222Accurate Passes194

63%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls16

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2