Rotherham 2–1 Lincoln: Result & Stats | League One

Rotherham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lincoln

S. Raggett 77'

S. Nombe 21'

J. Makama 50'

12/3/2024

League One · Round 18AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Rotherham33%

×Draw24%

Lincoln43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.58

Rotherham

1.35

Lincoln

1.58

Lincoln creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.55

creates per match

1.54

1.61

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Rotherham

1.55

Lincoln

1.54

allows per match

Rotherham

1.61

Lincoln

1.16

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

Rotherham-0.55scores less

Lincoln+0.66scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

57%

Rotherham or Lincoln

76%

Draw or Lincoln

67%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

14%

Lincoln wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

74%

Rotherham 2+ goals

39%

Rotherham 3+ goals

15%

Lincoln 1+ goals

79%

Lincoln 2+ goals

47%

Lincoln 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

43%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.16 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.55 + Lincoln defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lincoln attack 1.54 + Rotherham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rotherham scores more

33%

level

24%

Lincoln scores more

43%

Lincoln at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Raggett

Rotherham · D

8.2

Match Events

8'

D. Jefferies← A. Jackson

21'

S. Nombe↳ R. James

46'

R. Hackett← E. Hamilton

48'

50'

56'

60'

67'

68'

77'

S. Raggett↳ J. Powell

79'

B. Cadamarteri← J. Makama

80'

E. Ring← J. Moylan

90+6'

Hakeem Odofin

90+8'

Freddie Draper

90+7'

Reeco Hackett-Fairchild

90+5'

J. McCart← R. James

90+2'

A. MacDonald← S. Nombe

90+1'

S. McWilliams← M. Wilks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamLincoln

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots14

3Corners5

16Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots14

5On Target5

2Off Target4

1Blocked5

5Inside Box12

3Outside Box2

Passing

38%Possession62%

247Total Passes395

154Accurate Passes302

62%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Lincoln

Rotherham beat Lincoln 2-1 in League One on December 3, 2024.

Goals: S. Nombe (21'), J. Makama (50'), S. Raggett (77').

Lincoln controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.

Rotherham vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Lincoln