Rotherham 5–2 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Cardiff

J. Hugill 69', 25'

S. Nombe 63'

T. Eaves 57' (pen), 45+2'

O. Tanner 47'

N. Phillips 38'

5/4/2024

Championship · Round 46AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rotherham57%

×Draw22%

Cardiff20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.02

Rotherham

1.88

Cardiff

1.02

Rotherham creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 61 away

2.20

creates per match

1.03

1.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Rotherham

2.20

Cardiff

1.03

allows per match

Rotherham

1.00

Cardiff

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

80%

Rotherham or Cardiff

78%

Draw or Cardiff

43%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

33%

Cardiff wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

85%

Rotherham 2+ goals

56%

Rotherham 3+ goals

29%

Cardiff 1+ goals

64%

Cardiff 2+ goals

27%

Cardiff 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

74%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 2.20 + Cardiff defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.88

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Rotherham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rotherham scores more

57%

level

22%

Cardiff scores more

20%

Rotherham at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Hugill

Rotherham · F

8.3

Match Events

25'

J. Hugill↳ C. Bramall

38'

N. Phillips↳ O. Tanner

45+2'

T. Eaves↳ C. Bramall

47'

O. Tanner↳ C. Ashford

57'

T. EavesPenalty

58'

60'

63'

69'

76'

76'

77'

R. Colwill← D. Turnbull

77'

C. O'Dowda← O. Tanner

85'

J. Colwill← M. Siopis

89'

M. McGuinness← N. Phillips

90+2'

S. Ferguson← S. Revan

90+2'

V. Johansson← D. Phillips

90+2'

B. Hatton← S. Nombe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamCardiff

Overview

33%Possession67%

16Total Shots20

3.30Expected Goals (xG)1.34

4Corners6

9Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots20

7On Target5

5Off Target6

4Blocked9

13Inside Box12

3Outside Box8

Passing

33%Possession67%

258Total Passes542

200Accurate Passes477

78%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0

Championship: Rotherham 5–2 Cardiff

Rotherham beat Cardiff 5-2 in Championship on May 4, 2024.

Goals: J. Hugill (25', 69'), N. Phillips (38'), T. Eaves (45+2', 57' pen), O. Tanner (47'), S. Nombe (63').

Cardiff controlled possession (67%) and registered 20 shots to 16.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.

Rotherham vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Rotherham 5–2 Cardiff