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Cardiff vs Rotherham — League One 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
R. Colwill 60'
C. Ashford 55'
Y. Salech 43'
8/16/2025League OneLeague One · Round 3Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cardiff60%
×Draw22%
Rotherham18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.86
Rotherham
0.90

Cardiff creates 107% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cardiff
2.17
Rotherham
0.80

allows per match

Cardiff
1.00
Rotherham
1.56

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
82%
Cardiff or Rotherham
78%
Draw or Rotherham
40%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
35%
Rotherham wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
84%
Cardiff 2+ goals
55%
Cardiff 3+ goals
28%
Rotherham 1+ goals
59%
Rotherham 2+ goals
23%
Rotherham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
77%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 2.17 + Rotherham defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.86

Rotherham attack 0.80 + Cardiff defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cardiff scores more
60%
level
22%
Rotherham scores more
18%

Cardiff at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
Y. SalechCardiffCardiff · F
8.3

Match Events

20'
ArJany Martha
32'
Dakarai Mafico
35'
J. Bagan← D. Mafico
38'
Lenny Agbaire
43'
Y. Salech↳ D. Turnbull
46'
M. Kaleta← L. Agbaire
51'
Joel Bagan
55'
C. Ashford↳ D. Turnbull
60'
J. Holmes← L. Kelly
60'
R. Colwill↳ Y. Salech
68'
Sean Raggett
75'
J. Clarke← D. Yearwood
75'
C. McGuckin← A. Martha
81'
J. Colwill← R. Colwill
81'
I. Davies← C. Ashford
82'
C. Robinson← Y. Salech
88'
C. Chambers← R. Kpakio

Possession

76%Cardiff

Shots

13Cardiff

Pass accuracy

59%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffRotherham
Overview
76%Possession24%
13Total Shots1
7Corners0
16Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots1
6On Target1
4Off Target0
3Blocked0
12Inside Box0
1Outside Box1
Passing
76%Possession24%
658Total Passes211
596Accurate Passes135
91%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Rotherham

Cardiff beat Rotherham 3-0 in League One on August 16, 2025.

Goals: Y. Salech (43'), C. Ashford (55'), R. Colwill (60').

Cardiff controlled possession (76%) and registered 13 shots to 1.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff.