Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cardiff vs Rotherham — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
P. Ng 90'
K. Etete 56'
9/30/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cardiff62%
×Draw22%
Rotherham16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.93
Rotherham
0.87

Cardiff creates 122% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 3 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.19
Rotherham
0.67

allows per match

Cardiff
1.07
Rotherham
2.67

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
84%
Cardiff or Rotherham
78%
Draw or Rotherham
38%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
37%
Rotherham wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
85%
Cardiff 2+ goals
57%
Cardiff 3+ goals
30%
Rotherham 1+ goals
58%
Rotherham 2+ goals
22%
Rotherham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
79%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.19 + Rotherham defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.93

Rotherham attack 0.67 + Cardiff defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cardiff scores more
62%
level
22%
Rotherham scores more
16%

Cardiff at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
P. NgCardiffCardiff · D
7.9

Match Events

18'
O. Tanner← Y. Meïté
35'
Manolis Siopis
46'
Dimitris Goutas
56'
K. Etete↳ K. Ahearne-Grant
67'
S. Nombe← J. Hugill
72'
L. Peltier← S. Clucas
72'
A. Appiah← S. Revan
79'
C. Robinson← J. Ralls
87'
E. Adams← M. Siopis
87'
I. Ugbo← K. Ahearne-Grant
87'
G. Kelly← A. Green
90'
P. Ng

Possession

69%Cardiff

Shots

12Cardiff

Pass accuracy

57%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffRotherham
Overview
69%Possession31%
12Total Shots7
1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.59
6Corners5
4Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots7
5On Target0
3Off Target5
4Blocked2
8Inside Box4
4Outside Box3
Passing
69%Possession31%
555Total Passes252
450Accurate Passes154
81%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
4Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Rotherham

Cardiff beat Rotherham 2-0 in Championship on September 30, 2023.

Goals: K. Etete (56'), P. Ng (90').

Cardiff controlled possession (69%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.