Rotherham 1–2 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cardiff

C. Ogbene 37'

C. Kipré 87'

K. Etete 11'

4/27/2023

Championship · Round 38AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rotherham57%

×Draw22%

Cardiff20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.02

Rotherham

1.88

Cardiff

1.02

Rotherham creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 61 away

2.20

creates per match

1.03

1.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Rotherham

2.20

Cardiff

1.03

allows per match

Rotherham

1.00

Cardiff

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

80%

Rotherham or Cardiff

78%

Draw or Cardiff

43%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

33%

Cardiff wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

85%

Rotherham 2+ goals

56%

Rotherham 3+ goals

29%

Cardiff 1+ goals

64%

Cardiff 2+ goals

27%

Cardiff 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

74%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 2.20 + Cardiff defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.88

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Rotherham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rotherham scores more

57%

level

22%

Cardiff scores more

20%

Rotherham at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Ogbene

Rotherham · F

7.7

Match Events

11'

K. Etete↳ P. Ng

37'

C. Ogbene↳ W. Harding

46'

J. Simpson← C. ODowda

59'

67'

70'

71'

85'

B. Wiles← C. Coventry

85'

Domingos Quina← L. Peltier

87'

C. Kipré

90+2'

R. Sawyers← J. Philogene

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamCardiff

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots13

6Corners4

14Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots13

3On Target6

4Off Target5

1Blocked2

3Inside Box9

5Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

266Total Passes304

163Accurate Passes189

61%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides3