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Rosenborg vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Rosenborg
Rosenborg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stabaek
Stabaek
M. Lundemo 59'
F. Boli 52'
8/12/2018EliteserienEliteserien · Round 18Lerkendal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Rosenborg51%
×Draw22%
Stabaek27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg
2.01
Stabaek
1.41

Rosenborg creates 43% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rosenborg
1.87
Stabaek
1.63

allows per match

Rosenborg
1.19
Stabaek
2.15

finishing

Rosenborg-0.08on par
Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Stabaek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw
73%
Rosenborg or Stabaek
78%
Draw or Stabaek
49%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+
30%
Stabaek wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals
87%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
59%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
32%
Stabaek 1+ goals
76%
Stabaek 2+ goals
41%
Stabaek 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)
66%
Stabaek (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.19 · 39 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.87 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.01

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Rosenborg defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rosenborg scores more
51%
level
22%
Stabaek scores more
27%

Rosenborg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
M. LundemoRosenborgRosenborg · M
8.1

Match Events

52'
F. Boli↳ M. Njie
57'
E. Botheim← A. Gersbach
59'
M. Lundemo↳ T. Reginiussen
69'
O. Brynhildsen← M. Njie
73'
M. Vilhjálmsson← A. Søderlund

Possession

Rosenborg: 62Stabaek: 3862%Rosenborg

Shots

Rosenborg: 18Stabaek: 1218Rosenborg

Pass accuracy

Rosenborg: 85Stabaek: 7852%Rosenborg

Statistics

RosenborgStabaek
Overview
62%Possession38%
18Total Shots12
6Corners3
10Fouls10
Shots
18Total Shots12
5On Target6
7Off Target5
6Blocked1
10Inside Box7
8Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
600Total Passes369
511Accurate Passes289
85%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls10
0Red Cards0
7Offsides2

Match Recap: Rosenborg vs Stabaek

Rosenborg and Stabaek drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on August 12, 2018.

Goals: F. Boli (52'), M. Lundemo (59').

Rosenborg controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Lerkendal in Trondheim.