Rosenborg 2–1 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Rosenborg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

M. Henriksen 37'

S. Nypan 26'

M. Ingebrigtsen 81'

7/7/2024

Eliteserien · Round 13Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Rosenborg59%

×Draw21%

ODD Ballklubb19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.04

Rosenborg

1.99

ODD Ballklubb

1.04

Rosenborg creates 91% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 16 away

1.75

creates per match

0.94

1.15

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.75

ODD Ballklubb

0.94

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.15

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Rosenborg-0.03on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

81%

Rosenborg or ODD Ballklubb

79%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

41%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

35%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

86%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

59%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

32%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

65%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

28%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

75%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 29 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.22 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.75 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.99

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Rosenborg defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rosenborg scores more

59%

level

21%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

19%

Rosenborg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

S. Nypan

Rosenborg · M

7.6

Match Events

9'

Etzaz Hussain

26'

S. Nypan

37'

M. Henriksen↳ S. Nypan

39'

Markus Henriksen

45+1'

Tony Miettinen

60'

O. Sæter← N. Holm

64'

T. Nemčík← U. Yttergård Jenssen

64'

E. Frederiksen← S. Nypan

65'

Josef Baccay

68'

B. Bang-Kittelsen← B. Njie

68'

S. Skjeldal← J. Baccay

78'

Bork Bang-Kittilsen

81'

M. Ingebrigtsen

83'

Sondre Solholm Johansen

83'

M. Ivančević← T. Miettinen

83'

S. Johansen← T. Svendsen

86'

T. Børkeeiet← M. Broholm

90+9'

Sander Tangvik

90+2'

Edvard Sandvik Tagseth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgODD

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots9

6Corners3

12Fouls20

Shots

17Total Shots9

1On Target1

8Off Target4

8Blocked4

10Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

496Total Passes414

404Accurate Passes324

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Discipline

12Fouls20

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 2–1 ODD Ballklubb

Rosenborg beat ODD Ballklubb 2-1 in Eliteserien on July 7, 2024.

Goals: S. Nypan (26'), M. Henriksen (37'), M. Ingebrigtsen (81').

Rosenborg controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.

Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 2–1 ODD Ballklubb