Rosenborg 3–2 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Rosenborg

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

ODD Ballklubb

U. Yttergård Jenssen 71'

O. Sæter 63' (pen), 47'

M. Ingebrigtsen 10'

O. Midtskogen 2'

7/30/2023

Eliteserien · Round 16Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Rosenborg60%

×Draw21%

ODD Ballklubb19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.04

Rosenborg

2.02

ODD Ballklubb

1.04

Rosenborg creates 94% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 17 away

1.79

creates per match

0.94

1.14

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.79

ODD Ballklubb

0.94

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.14

ODD Ballklubb

2.26

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Rosenborg-0.02on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

81%

Rosenborg or ODD Ballklubb

79%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

40%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

36%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

87%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

60%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

33%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

65%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

28%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

76%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.14 · 30 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.26 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.79 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.02

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Rosenborg defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rosenborg scores more

60%

level

21%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

19%

Rosenborg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Pereira

Rosenborg · D

7.9

Match Events

2'

O. Midtskogen↳ D. Gjengaar

10'

M. Ingebrigtsen↳ J. Baccay

47'

O. Sæter↳ A. Pereira

49'

Santeri Väänänen

57'

T. Børkeeiet← S. Väänänen

63'

O. SæterPenalty

65'

Solomon Owusu

66'

Edvard Sandvik Tagseth

67'

F. Tewelde← M. Ingebrigtsen

70'

L. Hien← O. Midtskogen

71'

U. Yttergård Jenssen

76'

H. Røsten← U. Yttergård Jenssen

82'

M. Bjørlo← S. Nypan

85'

S. Skjeldal← D. Gjengaar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgODD

Overview

60%Possession40%

23Total Shots4

3.00Expected Goals (xG)1.03

6Corners0

7Fouls7

Shots

23Total Shots4

9On Target3

9Off Target1

5Blocked0

14Inside Box4

9Outside Box0

Passing

60%Possession40%

544Total Passes379

471Accurate Passes299

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

5Offsides0