ODD Ballklubb 1–3 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Rosenborg

T. Børven 50'

M. Broholm 85', 65'

N. Holm 26'

8/25/2024

Eliteserien · Round 20Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

ODD Ballklubb40%

×Draw24%

Rosenborg36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.47

ODD Ballklubb

1.56

Rosenborg

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 29 away

1.30

creates per match

1.39

1.55

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Rosenborg

1.39

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.55

Rosenborg

1.81

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.08on par

Rosenborg-0.01on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

64%

ODD Ballklubb or Rosenborg

76%

Draw or Rosenborg

60%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

20%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

79%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

46%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

21%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

77%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

43%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

53%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.81 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Rosenborg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rosenborg attack 1.39 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

40%

level

24%

Rosenborg scores more

36%

ODD Ballklubb at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

M. Broholm

Rosenborg · F

9.7

Match Events

19'

Espen Ruud

26'

N. Holm↳ S. Nypan

40'

Adrian Nilsen Pereira

46'

A. Andersson← A. Pereira

50'

T. Børven

60'

Adam Andersson

62'

E. Ceïde← N. Holm

63'

L. Hien← E. Ruud

65'

M. Broholm↳ E. Ceïde

75'

B. Bang-Kittelsen← S. Aas

83'

T. Svendsen← F. Jørgensen

83'

O. Midtskogen← J. Baccay

85'

M. Broholm

90+2'

L. Račić← J. Reitan-Sunde

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDRosenborg

Overview

48%Possession52%

8Total Shots19

0.65Expected Goals (xG)1.60

0Corners8

11Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots19

1On Target9

4Off Target7

3Blocked3

7Inside Box8

1Outside Box11

Passing

48%Possession52%

450Total Passes490

391Accurate Passes417

87%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2