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ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rosenborg
Rosenborg
4/30/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 4Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

ODD Ballklubb40%
×Draw24%
Rosenborg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.56
Rosenborg
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 29 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.30
Rosenborg
1.39

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.55
Rosenborg
1.81

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.08on par
Rosenborg-0.01on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Rosenborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
64%
ODD Ballklubb or Rosenborg
76%
Draw or Rosenborg
60%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
20%
Rosenborg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
79%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
46%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
21%
Rosenborg 1+ goals
77%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
43%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
53%
Rosenborg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.81 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Rosenborg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rosenborg attack 1.39 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
40%
level
24%
Rosenborg scores more
36%

ODD Ballklubb at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
E. ReitanRosenborgRosenborg · D
7.7

Match Events

28'
Santeri Väänänen
44'
Mikael Ingebrigtsen
46'
F. Jørgensen← S. Owusu
46'
L. Owusu← E. Ruud
46'
O. Aga← Í. Þorvaldsson
49'
Conrad Wallem
61'
M. Broholm← J. Nelson
81'
P. Skjelbred← S. Väänänen
90+3'
Markus Henriksen

Possession

47%ODD

Shots

9ODD

Pass accuracy

50%ODD

Statistics

ODDRosenborg
Overview
47%Possession53%
9Total Shots10
4Corners8
10Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots10
1On Target0
5Off Target4
3Blocked6
8Inside Box6
1Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
472Total Passes523
397Accurate Passes438
84%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Eliteserien: ODD Ballklubb 0–0 Rosenborg

ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in Eliteserien on April 30, 2023.

Rosenborg controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.