Rosenborg 1–0 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Rosenborg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

N. Holm 33'

4/10/2022

Eliteserien · Round 2Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Rosenborg59%

×Draw21%

ODD Ballklubb20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.10

Rosenborg

2.04

ODD Ballklubb

1.10

Rosenborg creates 85% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

1.85

creates per match

0.98

1.22

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.85

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.22

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Rosenborg-0.12scores less

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

80%

Rosenborg or ODD Ballklubb

79%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

41%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

36%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

87%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

60%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

33%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

67%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

30%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

75%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.85 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.04

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Rosenborg defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rosenborg scores more

59%

level

21%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

20%

Rosenborg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

R. Giampaoli

Rosenborg · D

8.2

Match Events

33'

N. Holm↳ E. Reitan

56'

Espen Ruud

61'

S. Vecchia← P. Skjelbred

66'

V. Hoff← V. Jensen

72'

M. Ingebrigtsen← M. Jevtović

73'

Carlo Holse

74'

Tobias Borkeeiet

80'

John Kitolano← J. Baccay

80'

A. Stensrud← E. Ruud

80'

F. Kastrati← F. Jørgensen

85'

B. Fiabema← N. Holm

90+4'

S. Aas← C. Wallem

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgODD

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots14

2Corners2

7Fouls5

Shots

9Total Shots14

3On Target2

4Off Target8

2Blocked4

5Inside Box13

4Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

444Total Passes613

341Accurate Passes508

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls5

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb

Rosenborg beat ODD Ballklubb 1-0 in Eliteserien on April 10, 2022.

Goals: N. Holm (33').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.

Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb