Rosenborg 1–0 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Rosenborg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fredrikstad

S. Nypan 39'

4/5/2025

Eliteserien · Round 2Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Rosenborg50%

×Draw24%

Fredrikstad25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.13

Rosenborg

1.69

Fredrikstad

1.13

Rosenborg creates 50% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 33 away

1.76

creates per match

1.13

1.12

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.76

Fredrikstad

1.13

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.12

Fredrikstad

1.61

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Rosenborg+0.07on par

Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

75%

Rosenborg or Fredrikstad

76%

Draw or Fredrikstad

50%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

27%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

82%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

50%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

24%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

68%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

31%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

66%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.12 · 24 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.76 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.69

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Rosenborg defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rosenborg scores more

50%

level

24%

Fredrikstad scores more

25%

Rosenborg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Tangvik

Rosenborg · G

8.5

Match Events

39'

S. Nypan↳ M. Broholm

62'

S. Molde← S. Rafn

62'

S. Sorlokk← E. Holten

74'

B. Faraas← O. Ohlenschlaeger

74'

R. R. Shein← P. Metcalfe

76'

E. Reitan← U. Jenssen

83'

83'

90+7'

90+3'

90+5'

L. Racic← S. Vaananen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgFredrikstad

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots6

3.01Expected Goals (xG)1.01

8Corners6

14Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots6

6On Target3

7Off Target1

4Blocked2

15Inside Box5

2Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

434Total Passes317

358Accurate Passes213

82%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1