Fredrikstad 2–2 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Rosenborg

M. Traoré 37'

M. Bjørlo 15'

O. Sæter 69'

J. Reitan-Sunde 3'

7/27/2024

Eliteserien · Round 16Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Fredrikstad43%

×Draw24%

Rosenborg33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.39

Fredrikstad

1.64

Rosenborg

1.39

Fredrikstad creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 24 away

1.60

creates per match

1.44

1.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Rosenborg

1.44

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Rosenborg

1.67

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Rosenborg-0.02on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

67%

Fredrikstad or Rosenborg

76%

Draw or Rosenborg

57%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

22%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

81%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

49%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

23%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

75%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

40%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

57%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Rosenborg defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rosenborg attack 1.44 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

43%

level

24%

Rosenborg scores more

33%

Fredrikstad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

O. Selnæs

Rosenborg · M

8.2

Match Events

3'

J. Reitan-Sunde↳ N. Holm

15'

M. Bjørlo↳ J. Magnússon

34'

37'

57'

57'

60'

65'

D. Eid← S. Rafn

69'

O. Sæter↳ O. Selnæs

74'

M. Nielsen← B. Skaret

74'

H. Johansen← S. Sørløkk

77'

Maxwell Woledzi

77'

Stian Stray Molde

77'

Erlend Dahl Reitan

83'

S. Väänänen← S. Nypan

89'

E. Frederiksen← M. Broholm

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadRosenborg

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots13

1.13Expected Goals (xG)0.91

4Corners6

8Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots13

4On Target5

4Off Target5

6Blocked3

12Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

320Total Passes476

223Accurate Passes397

70%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg

Fredrikstad and Rosenborg drew 2-2 in Eliteserien on July 27, 2024.

Goals: J. Reitan-Sunde (3'), M. Bjørlo (15'), M. Traoré (37'), O. Sæter (69').

Rosenborg controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.

Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg