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Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

Rosenborg
Rosenborg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
S. Väänänen 53'
H. Johansen 90+5'
6/2/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 11Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Rosenborg50%
×Draw24%
Fredrikstad25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg
1.69
Fredrikstad
1.13

Rosenborg creates 50% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 33 away

creates per match

Rosenborg
1.76
Fredrikstad
1.13

allows per match

Rosenborg
1.12
Fredrikstad
1.61

finishing

Rosenborg+0.07on par
Fredrikstad-0.04on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw
75%
Rosenborg or Fredrikstad
76%
Draw or Fredrikstad
50%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+
27%
Fredrikstad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals
82%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
50%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
24%
Fredrikstad 1+ goals
68%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
31%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)
66%
Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.12 · 24 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.76 + Fredrikstad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.69

Fredrikstad attack 1.13 + Rosenborg defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rosenborg scores more
50%
level
24%
Fredrikstad scores more
25%

Rosenborg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
U. Yttergård JenssenRosenborgRosenborg · D
7.7

Match Events

37'
Adrian Nilsen Pereira
45+1'
B. Skaret← S. Kvile
50'
N. Holm← J. Nelson
53'
S. Väänänen
59'
O. Aga← B. Hendriksson
59'
L. Begby← E. Segberg
75'
M. Nielsen← P. Aukland
75'
H. Johansen← M. Bjørlo
77'
S. Nypan← E. Tagseth
84'
H. Volden← M. Ceïde
90+5'
H. Johansen↳ B. Skaret

Possession

60%Rosenborg

Shots

11Rosenborg

Pass accuracy

54%Rosenborg

Statistics

RosenborgFredrikstad
Overview
60%Possession40%
11Total Shots14
1.07Expected Goals (xG)1.44
4Corners5
6Fouls18
Shots
11Total Shots14
4On Target5
3Off Target5
4Blocked4
7Inside Box10
4Outside Box4
Passing
60%Possession40%
465Total Passes302
361Accurate Passes201
78%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls18
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 1–1 Fredrikstad

Rosenborg and Fredrikstad drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on June 2, 2024.

Goals: S. Väänänen (53'), H. Johansen (90+5').

Rosenborg controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.