Fredrikstad 0–2 Rosenborg: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rosenborg

M. Broholm 90'

O. Saeter 24'

5/28/2025

Eliteserien · Round 18Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Fredrikstad43%

×Draw24%

Rosenborg33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.39

Fredrikstad

1.64

Rosenborg

1.39

Fredrikstad creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 24 away

1.60

creates per match

1.44

1.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Rosenborg

1.44

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Rosenborg

1.67

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Rosenborg-0.02on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

67%

Fredrikstad or Rosenborg

76%

Draw or Rosenborg

57%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

22%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

81%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

49%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

23%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

75%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

40%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

57%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Rosenborg defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rosenborg attack 1.44 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

43%

level

24%

Rosenborg scores more

33%

Fredrikstad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Broholm

Rosenborg · F

8.3

Match Events

24'

O. Saeter↳ M. Zeidan

57'

R. R. Shein← P. Metcalfe

62'

I. Thorvaldsson← O. Saeter

66'

O. Ohlenschlaeger← S. Sorlokk

70'

D. Islamovic← N. Holm

81'

B. Faraas← M. Woledzi

81'

L. Begby← S. Molde

85'

Ísak Snær Þorvaldsson

90+5'

Ole Selnaes

90'

M. Broholm↳ L. Racic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadRosenborg

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots11

1.34Expected Goals (xG)1.33

5Corners6

9Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots11

2On Target6

5Off Target5

3Blocked0

10Inside Box7

0Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

351Total Passes523

296Accurate Passes461

84%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1