Rosenborg 2–3 Brann: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Rosenborg

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Brann

A. Pereira 52'

D. Islamovic 45'

E. Kornvig 78', 20'

M. Haaland 42'

10/26/2025

Eliteserien · Round 26Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Rosenborg41%

×Draw24%

Brann34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchBrann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.42

Rosenborg

1.58

Brann

1.42

Rosenborg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

1.79

creates per match

1.62

1.21

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.79

Brann

1.62

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.21

Brann

1.37

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Rosenborg-0.06on par

Brann+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Brann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

66%

Rosenborg or Brann

76%

Draw or Brann

59%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

21%

Brann wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

79%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

47%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

21%

Brann 1+ goals

76%

Brann 2+ goals

41%

Brann 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

55%

Brann (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Brann away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.79 + Brann defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.58

Brann attack 1.62 + Rosenborg defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rosenborg scores more

41%

level

24%

Brann scores more

34%

Rosenborg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Kornvig

Brann · M

8.6

Match Events

15'

Ulrik Jenssen

20'

E. Kornvig↳ J. Soltvedt

25'

J. Reitan-Sunde← S. Nordli

33'

N. Boakye← F. Knudsen

39'

Thore Baardsen Pedersen

42'

M. Haaland↳ J. Soltvedt

45+7'

Eivind Helland

45'

D. Islamovic↳ E. K. Ceide

46'

O. Saeter← U. Jenssen

46'

M. Hansen← U. Mathisen

52'

A. Pereira

63'

B. Finne← M. Haaland

64'

D. De Roeve← T. Pedersen

70'

Japhet Sery Larsen

71'

E. Reitan← J. Mortensen

71'

H. Volden← M. K. Ceide

78'

E. Kornvig↳ B. Finne

89'

V. Dragsnes← N. Holm

90+3'

Adrian Nilsen Pereira

90'

Matias Dyngeland

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgBrann

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots15

0.89Expected Goals (xG)1.31

7Corners8

16Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots15

4On Target6

6Off Target5

4Blocked4

12Inside Box9

2Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

350Total Passes495

274Accurate Passes412

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1