Rosenborg 1–2 Brann: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Rosenborg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Brann

S. Nypan 53'

A. Heggebø 49'

E. Kornvig 7'

10/20/2024

Eliteserien · Round 25Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Rosenborg40%

×Draw24%

Brann36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchBrann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.47

Rosenborg

1.56

Brann

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

1.77

creates per match

1.67

1.27

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.77

Brann

1.67

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.27

Brann

1.36

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Rosenborg-0.06on par

Brann+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Brann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

64%

Rosenborg or Brann

76%

Draw or Brann

60%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

20%

Brann wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

79%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

46%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

21%

Brann 1+ goals

77%

Brann 2+ goals

43%

Brann 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

53%

Brann (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Brann away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.77 + Brann defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Brann attack 1.67 + Rosenborg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rosenborg scores more

40%

level

24%

Brann scores more

36%

Rosenborg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Kornvig

Brann · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

E. Kornvig

44'

Sander Erik Kartum

47'

Ulrik MathisenPenalty confirmed

48'

Ulrik Jenssen

49'

A. Heggebø

53'

S. Nypan↳ U. Yttergård Jenssen

74'

Matias Dyngeland

78'

N. Sahsah← J. Reitan-Sunde

78'

O. Sæter← Moustafa Zeidan

82'

M. Sande← O. Didrik Blomberg

86'

S. Opsahl← S. Kartum

87'

E. Reitan← A. Pereira

87'

B. Finne← U. Mathisen

90+3'

Felix Horn Myhre

90+2'

R. Holten← A. Heggebø

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgBrann

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots11

0.98Expected Goals (xG)3.25

4Corners8

16Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots11

2On Target6

8Off Target4

3Blocked1

10Inside Box9

3Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

421Total Passes330

332Accurate Passes235

79%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Rosenborg vs Brann

Brann beat Rosenborg 2-1 in Eliteserien on October 20, 2024.

Goals: E. Kornvig (7'), A. Heggebø (49'), S. Nypan (53').

Rosenborg controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.

Rosenborg vs Brann — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rosenborg vs Brann